Apr 17Member-onlyA Tale of Two US Stock Markets, Both Relatively PessimisticOur Chicago Quantum Net Score quantitative stock market analysis is most sensitive to expectations on future US equity returns and less sensitive to risk-free returns for our investors. …Market Expectation2 min readMarket Expectation2 min read
Apr 17Member-onlyUnder what investing scenario does Gold shine and the US Dollar dim?During scenarios where the US risk-free rate of return equals the expected capital appreciation of US stocks, and both are elevated, we expect Gold stocks to outperform and the US dollar to fall in value. Last week we ran our Chicago Quantum Net Score model and we set an input…Gold2 min readGold2 min read
Mar 14Member-onlyDiversify, the US Stock Market remains risk offBy Jeffrey Cohen, Investment Advisor in Highland Park, Illinois A risk-off market means that a US stock market investor has to work harder to find an edge, or alpha, right now. The investor needs to hold more stocks, and put less money into each one. Last night’s optimal ‘long’ or…Stock Market3 min readStock Market3 min read
Mar 14Member-onlyThe President’s 2023 Budget: What Would HappenWe read an article on CNN that made us pause, so we did research into President Biden’s Budget. We will show you how to find it with Google Search, and how to quickly understand the big picture of taxing and spending. …Budget6 min readBudget6 min read
Feb 27Member-onlyWarning sign for stock markets: Leptokurtic distributionWe report kurtosis in our Chicago Quantum Net Score analysis for clients on a daily basis. We analyze the daily stock price changes and we compare then to various normal distribution. We look at kurtosis, or the fourth movement of stock prices, and skewness, which is the third movement. You…Stock Market3 min readStock Market3 min read
Feb 22Member-onlyNew Evidence: Consumer credit quality is degrading & financing companies struggle to keep upEvery quarter we look at the banking industry and do a ‘simple’ valuation of all the banks we follow. Currently, this includes 125 banks listed on US stock exchanges with a market capitalization of $1 billion or more. It runs from JPMorgan Chase, Citibank and Goldman Sachs and reaches down…Consumer Credit3 min readConsumer Credit3 min read
Feb 22Member-onlySharpen your stock market investing skills during this risk-off marketToday we speak of ways to sharpen your analytical skills to find the best portfolios to invest in. These are programming and analytical capabilities that require skill, but are accessible to anyone with Python skills, enough computing horsepower, and a premium market data services provider. We also discuss ways to…Risk Management9 min readRisk Management9 min read
Feb 21Member-onlyS&P 500 is back in the Bollinger BandsThe S&P 500 is finally back to within a relatively tight set of bollinger bands. You can see that it was trading above the bands on the way up, and below the bands on the way down, and occasionally traded in the bands when it looked to change direction (Oct…Stock Market3 min readStock Market3 min read
Feb 20Member-onlyFeb 20: Investment markets are “Risk Off” and what that means to investors.Today we made a youtube livestream video and discuss that we see the US stock market as risk-off. We discuss how we come to this conclusion, and what it might mean to you as an investor. Risk-off markets means that the expected returns to investing in risk is lower, and…Investing4 min readInvesting4 min read
Feb 10Exceptionally high and low volume stocks yesterdayWe found ten stocks that traded with exceptionally high volume yesterday compared to the past year, and an additional ten stocks that had exceptionally low volume. Here is the list for you, along with the percentage changes: High Volume Stocks Here are the 10 stocks with largest volume vs. last year’s average volume…High Volume2 min readHigh Volume2 min read
